2026 Integrated Energy Report Update
This post details the geothermal resource expansion scope for the 2026 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update, drawing on legislative mandates and recent technical workshops conducted by the California Energy Commission (CEC).
I. Background: Policy and Legislative Authority
The CEC is mandated by Public Resources Code (PRC) Section 25301(a) to conduct biennial assessments and forecasts of all aspects of energy industry supply, production, delivery, and demand. These assessments form the basis for policy recommendations intended to protect the environment, ensure reliability, and enhance the state’s economy. PRC Section 25302(c) further requires the CEC to prepare an update in alternate years (even-numbered years) to address emerging issues or progress on previous recommendations; the 2026 IEPR Update fulfills this requirement.
The 2026 IEPR Update is shaped by several key legislative and executive initiatives:
- Assembly Bill 1279: Mandates that California reach net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2045.
- Senate Bill 1020: Requires renewable and zero-carbon sources to constitute 90% of the state’s electricity by 2035.
- Senate Bill 100: Establishes the goal of a 100% renewable and zero-carbon electricity system by 2045.
- Senate Bill 32: Mandates a statewide GHG reduction of 40% below 1990 levels by 2030.
II. Current State of Geothermal Resources in California
California remains a global leader in geothermal energy, hosting 53 of the 99 geothermal plants in the United States. This represents 2.87 GW of capacity, or 72% of the total U.S. geothermal capacity. However, development has largely stalled; nearly the entire existing fleet was constructed between 1975 and 1990, with only ~139 MW added since 2000.
Recent headwinds include 357 MW in proposed projects that requested suspension in 2025, although some momentum remains with 49.9 MW approved in 2024 and 616 MW currently in geothermal Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to meet CPUC “clean firm” mandates.
III. 2026 IEPR Scope: Geothermal Resource Expansion
The 2026 IEPR Update, with Commissioner Noemí Gallardo as the associate member for this topic, focuses on assessing the challenges and opportunities for geothermal development to support California’s decarbonization goals.
1. Technical Potential and Modeling Results
CEC modeling (using the PLEXOS LT and BRIDGES models) highlights the critical role of geothermal as a clean firm resource:
- Reliability Requirements: To meet 2045 targets, California requires 150+ GW of new generation capacity.
- Winter Energy Security: While Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are modeled at approximately $7,000/kW (roughly 10x the cost of solar per kW), they are essential for winter nights and cloudy, windy days when solar output is low.
- Scenario Analysis: In scenarios where Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is unavailable, the model selects 10 GW of EGS to maintain reliability. Even in “No Emerging Resource” scenarios, the model still requires at least 3 GW of conventional geothermal and biomass.
2. Technological Advancements
The expansion scope explores several “next-generation” geothermal technologies:
- Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS): Recent commercial tests by Fervo Energy at Cape Station confirmed flows of 100–120 L/s (10 MW per doublet).
- AI Integration: Artificial intelligence is being utilized to enhance well productivity, as seen in recent breakthroughs at Lightning Dock.
- Underground Thermal Storage (UTES): A concept in Bakersfield, CA, is exploring the storage of 250°C water in sandstone reservoirs for 1000+ hours of storage capacity.
- Industrial Decarbonization: Since 54% of California’s industrial process heat is below 400°C, geothermal systems offer a significant opportunity to decarbonize the industrial sector.
3. Co-Production and Critical Minerals
Geothermal expansion is increasingly linked to energy security and domestic supply chains:
- Lithium Recovery: The Salton Sea geothermal brine contains enough lithium for 375 million EV batteries.
- Critical Minerals: Potential recovery from Salton Sea brine could meet significant portions of U.S. consumption for Zinc (69%), Strontium (67%), Potassium (45%), and Manganese (24%).
- Geologic Hydrogen: Regions like Sonoma and Lake County show potential for co-production of hydrogen at estimated costs below $1/kg.
IV. Technical Challenges to Expansion
Despite its potential, expansion faces significant technical and systemic barriers:
- Induced Seismicity: Managing the risk of earthquakes caused by fluid injection is a primary concern for EGS and conventional projects.
- Corrosion and Scaling: High salinity in regions like the Salton Sea requires advanced materials for longevity.
- Permitting and Land Use: Identifying suitable sites involves navigating local agency leads for exploratory drilling (AB 1359) or the CEC’s “Opt-In” permitting process. Land use screens for Terrestrial Climate Resilience (TCR) may further limit available acreage for development.
References
https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/GetDocument.aspx?tn=269519&DocumentContentId=106609
https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/GetDocument.aspx?tn=270849&DocumentContentId=108389
https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/GetDocument.aspx?tn=270850&DocumentContentId=108390
https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/GetDocument.aspx?tn=270856&DocumentContentId=108415
https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/GetDocument.aspx?tn=271330&DocumentContentId=108862
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